UCONN takes on San Diego State in Sweet Sixteen

The UCONN Huskies, ranked 3rd in the Western region will take on the San Diego State Aztecs ranked second in the region on Thursday night with coverage starting at 7:15 on CBS. The Huskies will go into the contest with a seven game winning streak and an overall record of 28-9, while the Aztecs are 34-2. This is the sixth NCAA tourney appearance for the Aztecs and the first time they have advanced out of the first round. Make no mistake about it, the Aztecs are for real; They have an RPI ranking of #3 in the country and a big,fast, athletic team.
This is a very good match up of two teams that are similar in some respects and very different in others. Both teams are tough defensively; the Aztecs are 6th in the nation in points allowed per game, 58.8 while the Huskies only give up 66.4. The aztecs opponents shoot 39.3% from the field while the Huskies opponents shoot 39.3.
While both teams are athletic and fast the Huskies rely on their backcourt for most of their scoring(Walker and Lamb) while four of the five top scorers for the Aztecs are front court players. UCONN is led by Kemba Walker at 23.3 ppg while San Diego State's top scorer is 6'7" Sophomore swingman Kahwi Leonared at 15.3 ppg.
The aztecs have three other players averaging in double figures including Senior Guard D.J Gay at 11.0, 6'9" Malcolm Thomas at 11.4, and 6'8" Bill White at 10.1.
Most of the pundits are predicting that San Diego State will win. I expect a very close, down to the wire contest in a low scoring game. (both teams in the 60's)
To me there are two keys in this game. The UCONN big men have to play an outstanding defensive game and force the Aztecs to shoot more from the outside than they like to do. They must control the defensive boards and stay out of foul trouble, particularly Oriakhi who tends to commit careless fouls and cry to the refs. The whining has to stop before he gets hit with a costly technical or quickly picks up two fouls and has to go to the bench for long stretches.
On offense, the Huskies have to get some points from their big men. If Oriakhi and Smith do not contribute offensively the Huskies will be in trouble. I look for Walker to have a good game and score 24 or more points. The Huskies need at least 12 from Lamb and another good game from JCM. Despite what most pundits are saying I am picking the Huskies by 3 points.
Since I will be flying back from pre-game scouting and will not get home until 7:00 on Thursday the Steep Hill Dome will not be open for this game. If the Huskies win and play in the Elite Eight on Sat. I will be importing a 50" HD screen for the game and everyone will be invited.
"You Heard it Here First"
Steve